Saudi Arabia in Yemen Why?
Over 150 Saudi and GCC fighter jets launched 33 air strikes early hours of the morning of 26 March against the positions of al-Houthis (Ansar Allah) and Republican Guard units loyal to former president Salih.
5 Dimension Consultants have provided SecurityMiddleEast.com with a special report on the Saudi and allies action into Yemen.
They concluded that neither Iran nor their Yemeni proxies, the al-Houthis, expected the Saudis and their GCC allies to carry out their military threat. The Houthi leadership, along with ex president Salih, may have genuinely thought that taking Anad air base as well as being 10 kilometres away from Aden, would have persuaded the Saudis to give up on President Hadi and accept the “new reality” in Yemen.
The 5 Dimensions analysts said “The Iranian leadership had significantly miscalculated as it had not taken into account a new leadership in Saudi Arabia that wishes to defend Saudi’s strategic interests in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait.”
They went on to say “The new and young leader of the Saudi Defence Ministry, Prince Muhammad bin Salman, appears eager to write his name on the pages of history as a capable military commander. He also wishes to score a military achievement to cement his position within the lines of succession after his cousin, the deputy Crown Prince and Interior Minister Prince Muhammad bin Nayef.”
5 Dimension Consultants assess that there is likely to be an escalation in Yemen that draws in regional powers and the air strikes are merely the start.
The Iranian leadership underestimated the dynamic strategic duo of Princes Muhammad bin Salman (Minister of defence and Head of the Royal Court) and Prince Muhammad bin Nayef (inister of Interior and Head of the Supreme Council for Security and Political affairs) and their determination to put an end to soft diplomacy especially if Saudi Arabia’s strategic interests are being threatened by Iran.
The air strikes alone are unlikely to be enough to drive the Houthis out of Sanaa and the port city of Hudaida. The campaign will likely include a naval blockade by Saudi, Egyptian and Pakistani navies.
The Egyptian armed forces are participating in the Saudi led campaign due to the threat posed to the Bab al-Mandab Strait by the Houthi blockade. This would render the Suez Canal useless due to the inability of ships passing through the Canal to emerge on the other side of the Red Sea.
According to 5 Dimension sources in Aden, Egyptian Special Forces have been spotted in the city as they landed early this morning. These reports corroborate other accounts of Saudi Arabia and Egypt preparations for amphibious landings to occupy the islands on the Strait. They would then use the islands as an operational base to drive the Houthi forces out of the coastal areas ports, cities and towns in Yemen, including Hudaida and Makha. It is probable that this Saudi led campaign will last for weeks if not longer.
More details on 5 Dimension Consultants can be found at this link: https://securitymiddleeast.com/profiles/5-dimensions/